But the most fascinating tech isn’t what’s in our hands, it’s what’s in our heads. We, the once predictors of rocket cars, summer vacations on Mars, and robotic sexual partners, we the over-achievers and over-dreamers, we’ve begun to fail at predicting the new pace of technology. Our wildest dreams are now in our nearest grasp.
O autor, Bud Caddell, cita Ray Kurzweil:
Progress is exponential–not just a measure of power of computation, number of Internet nodes, and magnetic spots on a hard disk–the rate of paradigm shift is itself accelerating, doubling every decade. Scientists look at a problem and they intuitively conclude that since we’ve solved 1 percent over the last year, it’ll therefore be one hundred years until the problem is exhausted: but the rate of progress doubles every decade, and the power of the information tools (in price-performance, resolution, bandwidth, and so on) doubles every year. People, even scientists, don’t grasp exponential growth. During the first decade of the human genome project, we only solved 2 percent of the problem, but we solved the remaining 98 percent in five years.Oh, and the technology… It’s an amazing time to be alive with a pair of thumbs. And you have 6.7 billion pairs of them (give or take a few unfortunate accidents).
O autor faz uma puta comparação com a segunda década do século passado:
But Two-Thousand-Teens, let’s not lump you in as the next decade. You’re more than that. You’re our second chance at a new century. We’ve stumbled, we’ve lost the faith in ourselves, we’ve made promises we knew we couldn’t keep, and we’ve spoiled the first few blank pages of our masterpiece. But that’s why you’re here. Again, expectations… but in this endeavor, you are not alone.
Between 1910 and 1920:
- Thomas Edison demonstrated the first talking motion picture.
- Motorized movie cameras were invented, replacing hand-cranked cameras.
- The crossword puzzle was invented by Arthur Wynne.
- Mary Phelps Jacob invented the bra.
- Gideon Sundback invented the modern zipper.
- Stainless steel was invented by Henry Brearly.
- The pop-up toaster invented by Charles Strite.
- Short-wave radio was invented.
- Wilhelm Roentgen discovered X-rays.
- Marie Curie won the Nobel Prize for chemistry, discovering a new source called radium.
- Einstein published his general theory of relativity.
From the most banal experiences of the 21st century to the most sublime, much of the foundation was put in place during that second decade of the 20th century. It’s the same story again – the world we want to build, the society we want to live in, the future we want to dream, it all begins right now.